The European football season truly kicks off today with the start of the Spanish La Liga, the first of the continent’s top leagues to begin. Other major leagues will follow suit soon after.
In anticipation of these developments, we attempt to forecast what to expect from each of the five premier European competitions this season.
La Liga
On one hand, La Liga can seem predictable; on the other, it remains entertaining. Predictable because the title race usually boils down to a duel between Barcelona and Real Madrid. Over the past decade, only once has the championship gone to a different club, and in the last 20 years, only twice—both times to Atletico Madrid. Yet, the excitement lies in the unpredictability of how the season unfolds. The two usual frontrunners often create a storyline full of surprises, which has been the hallmark of La Liga for years. This season promises to be no different.
Barcelona, now under the guidance of Hansi Flick, has secured the last two league titles. Historically, the club has only had longer winning streaks twice: four consecutive titles under Johan Cruyff and three under Pep Guardiola. Flick has a golden opportunity to join those legendary ranks. His relationship with the squad is highly harmonious, and any internal conflicts seem resolved. His main rival is the unexpectedly returned Jose Mourinho at Real Madrid, who appears to have one final chance to restore the club’s shaken prestige. Mourinho has strengthened his squad with new signings and is expected to bring more order to the dressing room compared to last season’s chaos. However, the Opta supercomputer favors Barcelona with a 45.2% chance of winning the title, compared to Real’s 32.3%.
Premier League
The big question as the English season begins is whether life after Pep Guardiola at Manchester City will be as successful. City is among several top clubs that have changed managers during the off-season or slightly earlier, including Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester United. Such a managerial whirlwind hasn’t been seen in the league for a long time, making the title race even more unpredictable. It looks set to be the most open Premier League campaign in recent years.
Or perhaps not. Arsenal retained both their manager and squad, preserving their winning formula and the players capable of executing it. Although Mikel Arteta failed to make major reinforcements—his pursuit of Vinicius ended in disappointment—he did secure Bruno Guimaraes, which should significantly strengthen the midfield, a crucial element in Arteta’s system. Bookmakers are backing Arsenal strongly, giving them a 40% chance of winning the league, compared to 27% for Manchester City and considerably lower odds for the rest.
Serie A
As a player, Cristian Chivu was part of the great Inter Milan side that won five consecutive titles in the late 2000s. Now, as a coach, he aims to build a similar dynasty in the 2020s. Chivu has prepared well for the season, retaining Inter’s core “golden” squad and adding a couple of experienced, relatively reliable defenders—something the team clearly lacked last season. A year ago, few believed in Chivu as a manager, but now, with a Scudetto on his resume, he is widely recognized and praised by the media. The Opta supercomputer gives his revamped team a 36% chance of clinching the title, while their closest rival, Napoli, stands at just 15%.
The overall landscape favors Chivu. Most big clubs have changed managers, except Gian Piero Gasperini at Roma, though it’s hard to see his side, which lacks depth, mounting a serious title challenge. More likely contenders include Juventus under Luciano Spalletti, although that project still appears somewhat raw.
Bundesliga
Is it possible to imagine a season where Bayern Munich do not claim the championship once again? Absolutely. History has witnessed even more improbable events, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall or humans traveling to space. For instance, before the 2023/24 season, no one predicted Bayer Leverkusen would win the Bundesliga, yet they did so in spectacular, unbeaten fashion.
However, for Vincent Kompany’s team to miss out on the “Silver Salad Bowl,” several factors would need to align: a motivation crisis (how many times can you psych yourself up for the same goal?), shifting focus to the Champions League (which Munich hasn’t won in six years—a significant concern), a “new broom” effect among main rivals (with new managers at Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and RB Leipzig, any of these clubs could falter), and the “third season syndrome,” where dominant squads often experience a dip. If all these occur, Bayern might lose their 36th title. If not, they will continue their reign.
Ligue 1
Paris Saint-Germain under Luis Enrique plays a sterile, dominant style focused on total ball possession, which often seems unbeatable. Yet, PSG’s approach is vulnerable against teams that employ a “park the bus” defense combined with sharp counterattacks. If French coaches have spent the last two years analyzing PSG’s passing geometry and start systematically exploiting counterattacks, point losses are inevitable. Such losses already occurred last season, enabling Lens to mount a fierce challenge to PSG.
Moreover, the two-time Champions League winners are becoming less interested in toiling in the French “sandbox.” In contrast, clubs like Lens, Lille, and especially Marseille are highly motivated. This disparity in ambition could produce a new Ligue 1 champion in the 2026/27 season. However, history shows PSG can spend nearly two-thirds of the season underperforming before eventually switching gears and settling the title race—such is the club’s vast resources.
