English football has witnessed one of its most significant rulings in decades. An independent commission found Manchester City guilty of 114 out of 115 charges brought by the Premier League.
The case revolves around financial breaches spanning nearly a decade—from the 2009/10 season through 2017/18. The controversy began in 2018 when German outlet Der Spiegel, after publishing Football Leaks documents, accused the club of inflating sponsorship revenues linked to Abu Dhabi owners and concealing payments to players and manager Roberto Mancini. The Premier League launched an investigation that culminated in February 2023 with 115 official charges (some estimates go up to 130). These included 54 counts of inaccurate financial reporting, 14 related to payments to players and staff, breaches of profitability and sustainability rules (PSR), UEFA regulations violations, and 35 counts of obstructing the investigation.
The hearings took place behind closed doors from September to December 2024, with the verdict taking nearly two years to finalize. Throughout, the club vehemently denied wrongdoing, claiming to possess “irrefutable evidence” supporting their innocence. Following reports of the verdict, City issued a statement emphasizing that the process is ongoing, much remains confidential, and they expect a fair hearing. An appeal is almost certain.
The Premier League’s rules grant the commission a wide range of penalties to impose on City. Potential sanctions include:
• A substantial financial fine, possibly reaching tens or even hundreds of millions of pounds;
• Points deductions, applicable to the current season or retrospectively;
• A transfer ban;
• Stripping of Premier League titles won during the violation period (2011/12, 2013/14, 2017/18);
• In extreme cases, expulsion from the Premier League or enforced relegation.
Financial analyst Kieran Maguire and others suggest a severe points deduction between 30 and 60 points is the most likely outcome. Such a penalty could either end City’s title challenge and top-four hopes or even threaten relegation. While outright expulsion or stripping of all titles is considered less probable—given the league’s reluctance to destroy one of its flagship brands—the severity of the obstruction charges (35 counts) will heavily influence the final decision.
Currently, City is preparing an appeal, which must be filed within 14 days of official notification. A new appeals panel will be convened, and separate hearings on sanctions will follow either concurrently or shortly after. Legal experts and journalists estimate the entire process could drag on until mid to late 2027.
The most plausible scenario is that the appeal does not overturn the guilty verdict, resulting in a significant points deduction combined with a hefty fine. City would remain in the Premier League but face a severe handicap. A harsher outcome could impose penalties effectively guaranteeing relegation. The most drastic and least likely option would be expulsion from the league.
Meanwhile, the 2026/27 season unfolds amid profound uncertainty. City continues to accumulate points on the pitch but carries a “black mark” that will inevitably impact their future—though exactly how remains unknown.
Another critical aspect involves potential compensation claims from rival clubs. In 2024, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham formally notified City, reserving the right to seek damages. Following the guilty verdict, these clubs and others are actively consulting lawyers.
The core argument is straightforward: City’s breaches gave them an unfair advantage, causing rivals to lose league positions, prize money, Champions League qualification, and associated revenues. Some well-informed sources estimate individual club claims could exceed £100 million each, with total demands potentially reaching hundreds of millions.
There is precedent: in summer 2026, the commission ordered Everton to pay Burnley £35 million after Burnley’s relegation was linked to PSR violations. Premier League rules (clause W.55.5) explicitly allow for unlimited compensation awards. While full lawsuits are unlikely until the appeal concludes, preparations are underway.
Speculation about a mass player exodus and Erling Haaland moving to Real Madrid surfaced immediately after the verdict. However, the reality appears more restrained.
Most key players, including Haaland, have no relegation release clauses. The Norwegian signed an exceptionally long contract in early 2025 running until summer 2034, deliberately without exit clauses. The club accepted this risk.
According to Spanish reports, Real Madrid is not currently pursuing Haaland aggressively, given their already star-studded forward line and the complexities of his lengthy contract. If any transfer is plausible, Barcelona seems a more likely destination.
A mass departure from City would only be realistic if the club faces a severe punishment leading to Championship relegation. Even then, players cannot unilaterally terminate contracts—they would require negotiations and substantial settlements. The Juventus example after the 2006 Calciopoli scandal shows that while some stars left, others stayed to help the club rebuild.
For now, City is focused on stabilizing the squad and preparing for a protracted legal battle. The uncertainty weighs on players, especially those who signed long-term deals recently or were acquired this summer. However, immediate team collapse seems premature. The ultimate outcome depends heavily on the severity of the final sanctions after appeal.
In summary, the situation remains highly fluid. One thing is clear: this case has already reshaped English football and will continue to influence it profoundly—both on and off the pitch.
